Heracles 4-2 PEC Zwolle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 2 Mar 2025

📅02/03/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.18
Draw
22%
3.18
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.35
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
3.32
6+ Goals
10%
12.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.35 — our 27% vs market 23.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.08
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
8%
12.15
X/1
17%
5.2
X/2
12%
6.84
X/X
8%
4.57
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
13%
4.74
2/X
6%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
42%
+4.6pp
22%
Draw
28%
-6.3pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+1.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.4pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heracles EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY PEC Zwolle EU Bookmakers 33%
+5% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +20%
1.42/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.61
-10% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +44% / +19%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
295 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 76%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
23.3 Crosses 17.3
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heracles
2W-0D-4L
AWAY PEC Zwolle
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.59 xG 1.51
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
270 Passes 336
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 27
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.09.2024 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 3-0 HT 1-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
28.04.2024 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 3-1 HT 1-1 Heracles Heracles HOL
01.10.2023 Heracles Heracles 2-1 HT 0-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
15.01.2023 Heracles Heracles 0-3 HT 0-3 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL2
14.10.2022 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 3-2 HT 3-1 Heracles Heracles HOL2
26.02.2022 Heracles Heracles 2-0 HT 1-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heracles
4-2
AWAY PEC Zwolle
2.86 xG 0.88
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 1
253 Passes 228
75% Pass Accuracy 74%
31 Box Touches 9
20 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Heracles vs PEC Zwolle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heracles got the better of PEC Zwolle 4-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Heracles as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Heracles had 53% of the ball to PEC Zwolle's 47%, shots finished 16-5, expected goals 2.86 to 0.88.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, PEC Zwolle led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Heracles and 2.17 for PEC Zwolle.

What was the final score of Heracles vs PEC Zwolle?

Heracles 4-2 PEC Zwolle in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 02/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heracles vs PEC Zwolle?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heracles win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Heracles 47%, draw 22%, PEC Zwolle 31%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Heracles) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Heracles) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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