Almere City 0-1 Ajax — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 2 Mar 2025

Almere City
0-1 HT 0-1
Ajax
📅02/03/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

Almere City vs Ajax Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
5.09
Draw
20%
4.19
Away
55%
1.49
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.21
Over 2.5
61%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.75
No
44%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
4.23
2-3 Goals
38%
1.86
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
31%
2.85
6+ Goals
12%
8.32
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 2.85 — our 31% vs market 28.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
9.67
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
20.6
1/X
7%
17.85
X/1
10%
12.3
X/2
20%
4.06
X/X
8%
6.39
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
26%
1.81
2/X
5%
15.75
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.6 — our 9% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
17%
+8.1pp
20%
Draw
21%
-0.3pp
55%
Away Win
63%
-7.8pp
39%
Under 2.5
41%
-2.0pp
61%
Over 2.5
59%
+2.0pp
56%
BTTS Yes
53%
+2.9pp
44%
BTTS No
47%
-2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Almere City v Ajax — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almere City EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax EU Bookmakers 67%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +9%
1.17/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.16/1.22
-35% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -5%
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
280 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 432 · 83%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 35.3
18.3 Crosses 17.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9

Almere City vs Ajax Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almere City
0W-2D-2L
AWAY Ajax
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 2.25
0.95 xG 1.52
35% Ball Possession 65%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 6
237 Passes 548
73% Pass Accuracy 85%
13 Box Touches 33
12 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.12.2024 Ajax Ajax 3-0 HT 2-0 Almere City Almere City HOL
12.05.2024 Ajax Ajax 3-0 HT 3-0 Almere City Almere City HOL
12.11.2023 Almere City Almere City 2-2 HT 0-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
31.07.2022 Almere City Almere City 1-1 HT 0-1 Ajax Ajax HAZ

Almere City 0-1 Ajax — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Almere City
0-1
AWAY Ajax
0.67 xG 0.64
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 5
1 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 0
375 Passes 400
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 2
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Almere City vs Ajax
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax squeezed past Almere City 1-0 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Ajax as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Almere City had 50% of the ball to Ajax's 50%, shots finished 14-5, expected goals 0.67 to 0.64.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Ajax led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Almere City and 2.25 for Ajax.

What was the final score of Almere City vs Ajax?

Almere City 0-1 Ajax in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 02/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almere City vs Ajax?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Almere City 25%, draw 20%, Ajax 55%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ajax) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ajax) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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