Spartak Varna 3-0 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 22 May 2026

📅22/05/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.76
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
30%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.03
Over 2.5
48%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.68
No
48%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
8%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
53%
-6.6pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.6pp
30%
Away Win
23%
+7.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
45%
+6.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
55%
-6.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.2pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spartak Varna EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 EU Bookmakers 26%
+29% / +29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +14%
2.18/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.09
+47% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / +1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
449 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spartak Varna
1W-3D-1L
AWAY Lokomotiv Sofia 1929
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.02.2026 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna 2-2 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 BUL1
22.08.2025 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 0-0 HT 0-0 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna BUL1
28.03.2025 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 2-1 HT 1-0 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna BUL1
06.10.2024 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna 3-2 HT 1-2 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 BUL1
18.11.2023 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 0-0 HT 0-0 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna BULK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spartak Varna
3-0
AWAY Lokomotiv Sofia 1929
51% Ball Possession 49%
17 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia 1929
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spartak Varna swept aside Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Spartak Varna as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Spartak Varna had 51% of the ball to Lokomotiv Sofia 1929's 49%, shots finished 17-15.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Spartak Varna and 1.20 for Lokomotiv Sofia 1929.

What was the final score of Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia 1929?

Spartak Varna 3-0 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 22/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia 1929?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spartak Varna win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Spartak Varna 46%, draw 24%, Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 30%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Spartak Varna) — while Under 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Spartak Varna) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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BUL1 More Bulgaria - 1st Division
22 May 2026
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