USM Alger 4-2 Paradou — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Algeria - 1st Division, 22 May 2026

📅22/05/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.53
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
15%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.03
Over 2.5
53%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.81
No
47%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
21%
X/2
6%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
5%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
61%
-1.9pp
25%
Draw
22%
+3.3pp
15%
Away Win
17%
-1.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
45%
+1.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
55%
-1.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.5pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME USM Alger EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Paradou EU Bookmakers 20%
-1% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -8%
1.56/0.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.67
+2% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +59% / -20%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
360 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME USM Alger
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Paradou
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.09.2025 Paradou Paradou 0-1 HT 0-0 USM Alger USM Alger CZYR
17.05.2025 Paradou Paradou 3-1 HT 2-0 USM Alger USM Alger CZYR
28.01.2025 USM Alger USM Alger 1-1 HT 0-1 Paradou Paradou CZYR
11.02.2024 USM Alger USM Alger 1-5 HT 0-2 Paradou Paradou CZYR
27.09.2023 Paradou Paradou 1-0 HT 0-0 USM Alger USM Alger CZYR
25.10.2022 USM Alger USM Alger 2-1 HT 2-0 Paradou Paradou CZYR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME USM Alger
4-2
AWAY Paradou
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH USM Alger vs Paradou
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

USM Alger saw off Paradou 4-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had USM Alger as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, USM Alger had 56% of the ball to Paradou's 44%, shots finished 14-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paradou led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for USM Alger and 1.83 for Paradou.

What was the final score of USM Alger vs Paradou?

USM Alger 4-2 Paradou in the Algeria - 1st Division on 22/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for USM Alger vs Paradou?

Before kick-off our model rated a USM Alger win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split USM Alger 59%, draw 25%, Paradou 15%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (USM Alger), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (USM Alger) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →