Atletico Mineiro 1-1 Bahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 22 Jul 2026

📅22/07/2026 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.86
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
25%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.9
Over 2.5
52%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.75
No
46%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.24
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.39
6+ Goals
11%
13.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.48
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.25
X/1 EV+ ✗
23%
4.46
X/2
10%
8.1
X/X
9%
4.79
2/1
7%
23.95
2/2
9%
6.22
2/X
8%
14.35
Value flag · X/1 at 4.46 — our 23% vs market 17.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
50%
+2.3pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.4pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+0.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
49%
-0.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
51%
+0.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.3pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahia EU Bookmakers 28%
+3% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -5%
1.49/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.62
+15% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / -28%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
302 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 78%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
21.0 Crosses 16.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Mineiro
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Bahia
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.85 xG 0.83
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
400 Passes 322
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
06.11.2025 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 3-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
13.07.2025 Bahia Bahia 2-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
16.09.2024 Bahia Bahia 3-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
02.06.2024 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 1-1 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
07.12.2023 Bahia Bahia 4-1 HT 2-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
13.08.2023 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 1-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Mineiro
1-1
AWAY Bahia
1.23 xG 1.13
16 Total Shots 21
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
334 Passes 351
26 Box Touches 23
26 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico Mineiro vs Bahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Mineiro and Bahia shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Mineiro at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, shots finished 16-21, expected goals 1.23 to 1.13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bahia led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Atletico Mineiro and 1.67 for Bahia.

What was the final score of Atletico Mineiro vs Bahia?

Atletico Mineiro 1-1 Bahia in the Brazil - Serie A on 22/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Mineiro vs Bahia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Atletico Mineiro 52%, draw 23%, Bahia 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Atletico Mineiro), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Mineiro) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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