Carmarthen Town 1-0 Aberystwyth Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 22 Aug 2025

Carmarthen Town
1-0 HT 1-0
Aberystwyth Town
📅22/08/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Wales - FAW Championship – 2025/2026

Carmarthen Town vs Aberystwyth Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.89
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
24%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.21
Over 2.5
54%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.56
No
47%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
49%
+0.4pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.2pp
24%
Away Win
27%
-2.8pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.7pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Carmarthen Town v Aberystwyth Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Carmarthen Town EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Aberystwyth Town EU Bookmakers 30%
+14% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+20% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
284 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 84%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Carmarthen Town vs Aberystwyth Town Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Carmarthen Town
0W-1D-4L
AWAY Aberystwyth Town
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.80
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 7
The Meetings
29.10.2019 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town 0-3 HT 0-1 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town GALLK
18.10.2019 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town GAL
01.01.2015 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 5-3 HT 2-2 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town GAL
25.01.2014 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town 0-3 HT 0-0 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town GAL
28.12.2013 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 3-2 HT 1-0 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town GAL
POST-MATCH Carmarthen Town vs Aberystwyth Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Carmarthen Town squeezed past Aberystwyth Town 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Carmarthen Town as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Aberystwyth Town led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Carmarthen Town and 2.80 for Aberystwyth Town.

What was the final score of Carmarthen Town vs Aberystwyth Town?

Carmarthen Town 1-0 Aberystwyth Town in the Wales - FAW Championship on 22/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Carmarthen Town vs Aberystwyth Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Carmarthen Town win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Carmarthen Town 50%, draw 26%, Aberystwyth Town 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Carmarthen Town) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Carmarthen Town) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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