Athletic Bilbao 3-1 Celta Vigo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 22 Sep 2024

Athletic Bilbao
3-1 HT 2-1
Celta Vigo
📅22/09/2024 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Athletic Bilbao vs Celta Vigo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.8
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
32%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.34
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.54
6+ Goals
10%
14.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.34 — our 27% vs market 24.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.34
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.4
X/1
12%
4.21
X/2
15%
9.05
X/X
13%
4.66
2/1
7%
24.45
2/2
12%
6.94
2/X
6%
14.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
52%
-9.2pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.2pp
32%
Away Win
22%
+10.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.6pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Athletic Bilbao v Celta Vigo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Celta Vigo EU Bookmakers 25%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +5%
1.54/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.71
-1% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +55% / -9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
366 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 74%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
21.0 Crosses 14.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0

Athletic Bilbao vs Celta Vigo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Athletic Bilbao
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Celta Vigo
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.36 xG 0.94
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
331 Passes 359
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.05.2024 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 2-1 HT 0-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
10.11.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 4-3 HT 2-2 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
20.05.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 2-1 HT 1-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
29.01.2023 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 1-0 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
17.04.2022 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 0-2 HT 0-2 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
28.08.2021 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 0-1 HT 0-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1

Athletic Bilbao 3-1 Celta Vigo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Athletic Bilbao
3-1
AWAY Celta Vigo
0.69 xG 1.31
32% Ball Possession 68%
10 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
249 Passes 562
81% Pass Accuracy 88%
20 Box Touches 24
12 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Athletic Bilbao vs Celta Vigo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Athletic Bilbao got the better of Celta Vigo 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Athletic Bilbao as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Athletic Bilbao had 32% of the ball to Celta Vigo's 68%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 0.69 to 1.31 — on chances, Celta Vigo could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Athletic Bilbao and 1.50 for Celta Vigo.

What was the final score of Athletic Bilbao vs Celta Vigo?

Athletic Bilbao 3-1 Celta Vigo in the Spain - Primera Liga on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Athletic Bilbao vs Celta Vigo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Athletic Bilbao win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Athletic Bilbao 43%, draw 25%, Celta Vigo 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) ✗ Under 2.5
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