Villarreal 1-5 Barcelona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 22 Sep 2024

Villarreal
1-5 HT 1-2
Barcelona
📅22/09/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Villarreal vs Barcelona Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.29
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
45%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.59
Over 2.5
60%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.43
No
39%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.96
2-3 Goals
35%
2.06
4-5 Goals
28%
2.58
6+ Goals
16%
5.81
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
5.07
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
20.25
1/X
5%
13.0
X/1
12%
8.27
X/2
12%
4.81
X/X
14%
6.16
2/1
8%
31.5
2/2
22%
2.4
2/X
7%
12.8
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.25 — our 11% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
27%
+1.9pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.5pp
45%
Away Win
50%
-4.4pp
40%
Under 2.5
35%
+4.7pp
60%
Over 2.5
65%
-4.7pp
61%
BTTS Yes
66%
-4.8pp
39%
BTTS No
34%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Villarreal v Barcelona — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Villarreal EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Barcelona EU Bookmakers 54%
+4% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +23%
1.57/1.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.83/1.05
+65% / -40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +44% / -14%
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
320 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 440 · 84%
29.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.3
17.3 Crosses 14.7
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4

Villarreal vs Barcelona Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Villarreal
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Barcelona
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.25 xG 2.13
38% Ball Possession 61%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 7
290 Passes 517
81% Pass Accuracy 88%
20 Box Touches 32
10 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.01.2024 Barcelona Barcelona 3-5 HT 0-1 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
27.08.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 3-4 HT 2-2 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
12.02.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 0-1 HT 0-1 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
20.10.2022 Barcelona Barcelona 3-0 HT 3-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
22.05.2022 Barcelona Barcelona 0-2 HT 0-1 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
27.11.2021 Villarreal Villarreal 1-3 HT 0-0 Barcelona Barcelona İS1

Villarreal 1-5 Barcelona — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Villarreal
1-5
AWAY Barcelona
2.17 xG 3.97
35% Ball Possession 65%
13 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 10
7 Corners 3
265 Passes 556
81% Pass Accuracy 91%
25 Box Touches 33
16 Crosses 17
6 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Villarreal vs Barcelona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barcelona swept aside Villarreal 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Barcelona as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (61%) came in.

On the day, Villarreal had 35% of the ball to Barcelona's 65%, shots finished 13-17, expected goals 2.17 to 3.97.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barcelona led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Villarreal and 2.33 for Barcelona.

What was the final score of Villarreal vs Barcelona?

Villarreal 1-5 Barcelona in the Spain - Primera Liga on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Villarreal vs Barcelona?

Before kick-off our model rated an Barcelona win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Villarreal 29%, draw 26%, Barcelona 45%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barcelona), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Barcelona) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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