Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Atletico Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 22 Sep 2024

Rayo Vallecano
1-1 HT 1-0
Atletico Madrid
📅22/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.48
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
48%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.68
Over 2.5
41%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.03
No
58%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.71
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.31
6+ Goals
7%
21.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
8.09
1/2
6%
27.0
1/X
8%
16.35
X/1
8%
9.52
X/2
17%
3.82
X/X
12%
4.36
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
25%
2.26
2/X
6%
15.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
19%
+6.9pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.0pp
48%
Away Win
54%
-5.8pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.9pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
45%
-3.6pp
58%
BTTS No
55%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rayo Vallecano v Atletico Madrid — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rayo Vallecano EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 57%
+3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -13%
1.00/1.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/0.86
+12% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -9%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
344 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 410 · 82%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
22.0 Crosses 15.4
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.8

Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rayo Vallecano
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Atletico Madrid
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.87 xG 1.76
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
385 Passes 377
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 22
22 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
31.01.2024 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 2-1 HT 1-1 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
28.08.2023 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 0-7 HT 0-3 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
09.04.2023 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-2 HT 0-2 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
18.10.2022 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1-1 HT 1-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
19.03.2022 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
02.01.2022 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 2-0 HT 1-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1

Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Atletico Madrid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rayo Vallecano
1-1
AWAY Atletico Madrid
1.85 xG 0.53
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
418 Passes 334
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
12 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 10
POST-MATCH Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rayo Vallecano and Atletico Madrid shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Madrid at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

On the day, Rayo Vallecano had 54% of the ball to Atletico Madrid's 46%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 1.85 to 0.53.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 2.50 for Atletico Madrid.

What was the final score of Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid?

Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Atletico Madrid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Rayo Vallecano 26%, draw 26%, Atletico Madrid 48%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Atletico Madrid), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Madrid) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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