FC Levadia 3-1 Parnu JK Vaprus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.16
Draw
22%
6.26
Away
16%
12.05
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.61
Over 2.5
58%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.29
No
53%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
16%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
82%
-20.0pp
22%
Draw
13%
+9.6pp
16%
Away Win
6%
+10.5pp
42%
Under 2.5
35%
+7.1pp
58%
Over 2.5
65%
-7.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
40%
+7.1pp
53%
BTTS No
60%
-7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Levadia EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus EU Bookmakers 8%
-6% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +38%
2.44/0.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.63/2.06
-3% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +21%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
447 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Levadia
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
67% Ball Possession 33%
18 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.08.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 1-4 HT 0-2 FC Levadia FC Levadia EST1
19.05.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-2 HT 0-0 FC Levadia FC Levadia EST1
20.04.2024 FC Levadia FC Levadia 1-1 HT 1-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
01.11.2023 FC Levadia FC Levadia 0-0 HT 0-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
06.08.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-3 HT 0-2 FC Levadia FC Levadia EST1
24.05.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Levadia FC Levadia EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Levadia
3-1
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus
73% Ball Possession 27%
21 Total Shots 3
10 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH FC Levadia vs Parnu JK Vaprus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Levadia saw off Parnu JK Vaprus 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had FC Levadia as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, FC Levadia had 73% of the ball to Parnu JK Vaprus's 27%, shots finished 21-3.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Levadia had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for FC Levadia and 0.33 for Parnu JK Vaprus.

What was the final score of FC Levadia vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

FC Levadia 3-1 Parnu JK Vaprus in the Estonia - Premium League on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Levadia vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Levadia win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split FC Levadia 61%, draw 22%, Parnu JK Vaprus 16%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Levadia), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Levadia) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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