Vancouver FC 1-3 Forge — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kanada - Premier League, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.99
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
48%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.23
Over 2.5
48%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.5
No
53%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.62
2-3 Goals
43%
1.9
4-5 Goals
20%
2.87
6+ Goals
10%
8.13
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.62 — our 27% vs market 16.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
28%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
30%
-2.5pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.4pp
48%
Away Win
45%
+2.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
41%
+11.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
59%
-11.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
62%
-15.4pp
53%
BTTS No
38%
+15.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vancouver FC EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Forge EU Bookmakers 49%
-19% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
0.62/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.13
-53% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -13%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
321 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 82%
15.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
23.0 Crosses 17.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vancouver FC
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Forge
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.97 xG 1.61
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
258 Passes 399
73% Pass Accuracy 84%
15 Box Touches 29
14 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.08.2024 Vancouver FC Vancouver FC 1-2 HT 0-1 Forge Forge KAPL
06.07.2024 Forge Forge 3-3 HT 1-2 Vancouver FC Vancouver FC KAPL
18.05.2024 Forge Forge 1-2 HT 0-2 Vancouver FC Vancouver FC CAPL
04.09.2023 Vancouver FC Vancouver FC 0-3 HT 0-2 Forge Forge CAPL
29.07.2023 Forge Forge 2-0 HT 0-0 Vancouver FC Vancouver FC KAPL
21.06.2023 Vancouver FC Vancouver FC 2-0 HT 2-0 Forge Forge KAPL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vancouver FC
1-3
AWAY Forge
2.34 xG 1.75
50% Ball Possession 50%
21 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 4
340 Passes 349
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
33 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vancouver FC vs Forge
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Forge got the better of Vancouver FC 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Forge as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Vancouver FC had 50% of the ball to Forge's 50%, shots finished 21-12, expected goals 2.34 to 1.75 — on chances, Vancouver FC could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Forge led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Vancouver FC and 1.83 for Forge.

What was the final score of Vancouver FC vs Forge?

Vancouver FC 1-3 Forge in the Kanada - Premier League on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vancouver FC vs Forge?

Before kick-off our model rated an Forge win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Vancouver FC 27%, draw 24%, Forge 48%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Forge) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Forge) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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