Fredrikstad 3-2 Viking — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒20:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.09
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
38%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.91
Over 2.5
41%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.68
No
55%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.52
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
18%
3.4
6+ Goals
11%
12.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.52 — our 33% vs market 23.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
2.97
1/2
7%
33.0
1/X
7%
12.85
X/1
19%
4.84
X/2
12%
6.71
X/X
10%
4.72
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
19%
4.7
2/X
7%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
44%
-5.9pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.8pp
38%
Away Win
30%
+8.7pp
59%
Under 2.5
48%
+10.1pp
41%
Over 2.5
52%
-10.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.7pp
55%
BTTS No
44%
+10.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fredrikstad EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Viking EU Bookmakers 33%
+3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +24%
1.65/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.39
-6% / +45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / +12%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
383 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 79%
30.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
19.2 Crosses 17.9
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fredrikstad
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Viking
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.20 xG 1.29
34% Ball Possession 66%
6 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
164 Passes 469
61% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 29
14 Crosses 25
4 Yellow Cards 0
21.04.2024 Viking Viking 1-1 HT 1-1 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad NOR
07.06.2023 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 1-2 HT 1-1 Viking Viking NOK
12.08.2012 Viking Viking 3-0 HT 1-0 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad NOR
29.05.2012 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 3-0 HT 2-0 Viking Viking NOR
31.07.2011 Viking Viking 2-0 HT 1-0 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad NOR
02.04.2011 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 0-1 HT 0-0 Viking Viking NOR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fredrikstad
3-2
AWAY Viking
1.40 xG 2.16
38% Ball Possession 62%
14 Total Shots 23
5 Shots on Target 11
7 Corners 6
216 Passes 410
66% Pass Accuracy 78%
38 Box Touches 33
15 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fredrikstad vs Viking
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fredrikstad nicked a narrow win over Viking 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 24% / 38% — and on the day Fredrikstad made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fredrikstad had 38% of the ball to Viking's 62%, shots finished 14-23, expected goals 1.40 to 2.16 — the balance of chances actually favoured Viking.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Viking led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Fredrikstad and 1.50 for Viking.

What was the final score of Fredrikstad vs Viking?

Fredrikstad 3-2 Viking in the Norway - Eliteserien on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fredrikstad vs Viking?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fredrikstad win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Fredrikstad 38%, draw 24%, Viking 38%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (38/24/38) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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