Viking 1-1 Fredrikstad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.76
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
24%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.0
Over 2.5
51%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.7
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
3.28
6+ Goals
13%
11.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.7 — our 26% vs market 21.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.36
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.2
X/1
16%
4.17
X/2
11%
8.42
X/X
13%
5.23
2/1
8%
22.7
2/2
7%
6.23
2/X
7%
14.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
52%
-1.7pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.8pp
24%
Away Win
24%
+0.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
46%
+2.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
54%
-2.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.8pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Viking EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Fredrikstad EU Bookmakers 27%
-3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -9%
2.15/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.80
+7% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -11%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
308 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 74%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
23.3 Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Viking
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Fredrikstad
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
64% Ball Possession 36%
11 Total Shots 1
4 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 3
07.06.2023 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 1-2 HT 1-1 Viking Viking NOK
12.08.2012 Viking Viking 3-0 HT 1-0 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad NOR
29.05.2012 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 3-0 HT 2-0 Viking Viking NOR
31.07.2011 Viking Viking 2-0 HT 1-0 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad NOR
02.04.2011 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 0-1 HT 0-0 Viking Viking NOR
02.08.2009 Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 1-0 HT 1-0 Viking Viking NOR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Viking
1-1
AWAY Fredrikstad
1.29 xG 1.20
68% Ball Possession 32%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
469 Passes 164
81% Pass Accuracy 61%
29 Box Touches 24
25 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Viking vs Fredrikstad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Viking and Fredrikstad shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Viking at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Viking had 68% of the ball to Fredrikstad's 32%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 1.29 to 1.20.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Viking had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Viking and 0.83 for Fredrikstad.

What was the final score of Viking vs Fredrikstad?

Viking 1-1 Fredrikstad in the Norway - Eliteserien on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Viking vs Fredrikstad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Viking win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Viking 51%, draw 25%, Fredrikstad 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Viking), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Viking) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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