Sandefjord 0-1 Lilleström — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.94
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
43%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.23
Over 2.5
53%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.53
No
46%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.52
2-3 Goals
39%
1.9
4-5 Goals
26%
2.9
6+ Goals
9%
8.39
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.6
1/2 EV+ ✗
12%
22.7
1/X
7%
12.85
X/1
14%
7.09
X/2
16%
4.94
X/X
11%
5.38
2/1
5%
30.5
2/2
15%
2.78
2/X
7%
12.6
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.7 — our 12% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
30%
+2.2pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.1pp
43%
Away Win
45%
-2.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
61%
-7.4pp
46%
BTTS No
39%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sandefjord EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Lilleström EU Bookmakers 49%
+1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +10%
1.18/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/0.98
-6% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +55%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
308 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 80%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.3
18.5 Crosses 25.0
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sandefjord
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Lilleström
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.09 xG 1.69
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
328 Passes 321
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 31
15 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 1
16.02.2024 Lilleström Lilleström 2-2 HT 0-1 Sandefjord Sandefjord HAZ
03.12.2023 Sandefjord Sandefjord 1-0 HT 1-0 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
16.07.2023 Lilleström Lilleström 4-2 HT 3-1 Sandefjord Sandefjord NOR
21.08.2022 Lilleström Lilleström 3-0 HT 1-0 Sandefjord Sandefjord NOR
21.05.2022 Sandefjord Sandefjord 1-4 HT 1-3 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
12.12.2021 Lilleström Lilleström 2-0 HT 1-0 Sandefjord Sandefjord NOR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sandefjord
0-1
AWAY Lilleström
0.69 xG 0.82
58% Ball Possession 42%
9 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
445 Passes 309
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
28 Box Touches 16
28 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sandefjord vs Lilleström
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lilleström nicked a narrow win over Sandefjord 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Lilleström as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Sandefjord had 58% of the ball to Lilleström's 42%, shots finished 9-8, expected goals 0.69 to 0.82.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lilleström led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sandefjord and 2.50 for Lilleström.

What was the final score of Sandefjord vs Lilleström?

Sandefjord 0-1 Lilleström in the Norway - Eliteserien on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sandefjord vs Lilleström?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lilleström win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Sandefjord 32%, draw 25%, Lilleström 43%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lilleström) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lilleström) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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