Sportivo Ameliano 0-1 Cerro Porteno — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Paraguay - Profesyonel League, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.13
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
47%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.54
Over 2.5
39%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.19
No
60%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
8%
X/2
15%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
26%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
21%
+6.3pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.4pp
47%
Away Win
53%
-5.9pp
61%
Under 2.5
61%
+0.3pp
39%
Over 2.5
39%
-0.3pp
40%
BTTS Yes
42%
-1.6pp
60%
BTTS No
58%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sportivo Ameliano EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerro Porteno EU Bookmakers 57%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +7%
0.83/0.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/1.26
-25% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +1%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
239 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 79%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
11.0 Crosses 26.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sportivo Ameliano
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Cerro Porteno
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.08.2024 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 1-0 HT 1-0 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano PAR
15.04.2024 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 3-0 HT 1-0 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano PAR
26.01.2024 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano 1-4 HT 1-1 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno PAR
28.09.2023 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 1-3 HT 1-1 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano PARK
16.07.2023 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano 0-1 HT 0-1 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno PAR
14.04.2023 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano 1-2 HT 0-2 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno PAR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sportivo Ameliano
0-1
AWAY Cerro Porteno
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
POST-MATCH Sportivo Ameliano vs Cerro Porteno
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerro Porteno nicked a narrow win over Sportivo Ameliano 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Cerro Porteno as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Sportivo Ameliano had 45% of the ball to Cerro Porteno's 55%, shots finished 10-6.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cerro Porteno led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Sportivo Ameliano and 2.00 for Cerro Porteno.

What was the final score of Sportivo Ameliano vs Cerro Porteno?

Sportivo Ameliano 0-1 Cerro Porteno in the Paraguay - Profesyonel League on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sportivo Ameliano vs Cerro Porteno?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cerro Porteno win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Sportivo Ameliano 27%, draw 26%, Cerro Porteno 47%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cerro Porteno), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cerro Porteno) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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