Nacional de Football 1-1 Defensor Sporting — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 22 Sep 2024

Nacional de Football
1-1 HT 0-1
Defensor Sporting
📅22/09/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Uruguay - Premier League – 2024

Nacional de Football vs Defensor Sporting Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.57
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
27%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.96
No
50%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
60%
-13.5pp
27%
Draw
23%
+4.0pp
27%
Away Win
18%
+9.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.7pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nacional de Football v Defensor Sporting — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional de Football EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Defensor Sporting EU Bookmakers 21%
-1% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -14%
1.94/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.53
+13% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +0%
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
436 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 206 · 67%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.5

Nacional de Football vs Defensor Sporting Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional de Football
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Defensor Sporting
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
11.03.2024 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 3-3 HT 1-1 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
05.12.2023 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 1-0 HT 0-0 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
08.05.2023 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 2-2 HT 1-1 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
09.10.2022 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 1-1 HT 1-0 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
15.05.2022 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 0-2 HT 0-1 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
08.03.2021 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 2-1 HT 1-0 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU

Nacional de Football 1-1 Defensor Sporting — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional de Football
1-1
AWAY Defensor Sporting
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Nacional de Football vs Defensor Sporting
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional de Football and Defensor Sporting couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Nacional de Football at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Nacional de Football had 62% of the ball to Defensor Sporting's 38%, shots finished 15-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nacional de Football had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Nacional de Football and 1.17 for Defensor Sporting.

What was the final score of Nacional de Football vs Defensor Sporting?

Nacional de Football 1-1 Defensor Sporting in the Uruguay - Premier League on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional de Football vs Defensor Sporting?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional de Football win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Nacional de Football 46%, draw 27%, Defensor Sporting 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Nacional de Football) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nacional de Football) ✓ Under 2.5
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