AZ Alkmaar II 1-3 De Graafschap — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 22 Sep 2025

📅22/09/2025 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.33
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
43%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.63
Over 2.5
59%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
64%
1.39
No
36%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
15%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
21%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
39%
-5.4pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.1pp
43%
Away Win
38%
+5.3pp
41%
Under 2.5
34%
+6.4pp
59%
Over 2.5
66%
-6.4pp
64%
BTTS Yes
68%
-3.9pp
36%
BTTS No
32%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 42%
-3% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -10%
1.57/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.30
+8% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +6%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
334 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 77%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.2
10.8 Crosses 21.4
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar II
1W-1D-4L
AWAY De Graafschap
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.33 xG 1.49
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
420 Passes 297
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Box Touches 20
12 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
21.02.2025 De Graafschap De Graafschap 5-1 HT 3-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
23.09.2024 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 2-2 HT 0-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
29.03.2024 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-1 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
23.10.2023 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 3-0 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
03.04.2023 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 0-1 HT 0-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
30.09.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-0 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar II
1-3
AWAY De Graafschap
0.50 xG 3.48
56% Ball Possession 44%
9 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 9
388 Passes 266
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
15 Box Touches 34
13 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar II vs De Graafschap
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

De Graafschap saw off AZ Alkmaar II 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had De Graafschap as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (64%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar II had 56% of the ball to De Graafschap's 44%, shots finished 9-20, expected goals 0.50 to 3.48.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, De Graafschap led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for AZ Alkmaar II and 2.00 for De Graafschap.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar II vs De Graafschap?

AZ Alkmaar II 1-3 De Graafschap in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 22/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar II vs De Graafschap?

Before kick-off our model rated an De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar II 33%, draw 23%, De Graafschap 43%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (De Graafschap), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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