Exeter City 1-2 Reading — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 22 Oct 2024

📅22/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
34%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
2.1
Over Pick
50%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.56
No
50%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1
24%
4.12
2-3
42%
1.85
4-5
23%
3.05
6+
11%
9.69
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.06
1/2
6%
29.0
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
12%
5.11
X/2
11%
6.4
X/X
7%
5.18
2/1
7%
24.0
2/2
17%
4.19
2/X
10%
13.0
Value flag · 2/X at 13.0 — our 10% vs market 4.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 50%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
42%
Home Win
42%
+0.0pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.1pp
34%
Away Win
32%
+2.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
60%
-10.0pp
50%
BTTS No
40%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Exeter City The Market 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Reading The Market 36%
+5% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -23%
1.15/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.33
-14% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / -23%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
312 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 75%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
22.1 Crosses 19.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Exeter City
1W-0D-3L
AWAY Reading
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.50
0.79 xG 2.16
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
321 Passes 344
75% Pass Accuracy 75%
16 Box Touches 33
16 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
01.01.2024 Reading Reading 3-2 HT 2-1 Exeter City Exeter City İN1
19.09.2023 Exeter City Exeter City 0-9 HT 0-2 Reading Reading İNTK
26.08.2023 Exeter City Exeter City 2-1 HT 1-1 Reading Reading İN1
15.07.2014 Exeter City Exeter City 0-1 HT 0-1 Reading Reading HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Exeter City
1-2
AWAY Reading
2.00 xG 0.85
63% Ball Possession 37%
18 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 5
416 Passes 224
81% Pass Accuracy 73%
31 Box Touches 18
37 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Exeter City vs Reading
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Reading squeezed past Exeter City 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Exeter City at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Exeter City had 63% of the ball to Reading's 37%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 2.00 to 0.85 — the balance of chances actually favoured Exeter City.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Reading led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Exeter City and 3.50 for Reading.

What was the final score of Exeter City vs Reading?

Exeter City 1-2 Reading in the England - 1st Division on 22/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Exeter City vs Reading?

Before kick-off our model rated a Exeter City win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Exeter City 42%, draw 23%, Reading 34%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Exeter City)
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