Reading 3-2 Exeter City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 1 Jan 2024

📅01/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.8
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
28%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
51%
1.95
Over
49%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1
28%
3.34
2-3
39%
1.76
4-5
21%
3.44
6+
12%
13.25
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.34 — our 28% vs market 23.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.37
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.95
X/1
11%
4.13
X/2
10%
8.46
X/X
14%
4.86
2/1
11%
23.85
2/2
13%
6.44
2/X
5%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
46%
Home Win
52%
-5.3pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.3pp
28%
Away Win
23%
+5.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.1pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Reading The Market 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Exeter City The Market 26%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -20%
1.49/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.52
+15% / +72% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -21%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
385 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 242 · 68%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
19.4 Crosses 15.6
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Reading
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Exeter City
3.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.70 xG 0.64
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
337 Passes 290
75% Pass Accuracy 74%
38 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.09.2023 Exeter City Exeter City 0-9 HT 0-2 Reading Reading İNTK
26.08.2023 Exeter City Exeter City 2-1 HT 1-1 Reading Reading İN1
15.07.2014 Exeter City Exeter City 0-1 HT 0-1 Reading Reading HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Reading
3-2
AWAY Exeter City
1.07 xG 1.09
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 2
0 Corners 4
358 Passes 383
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Box Touches 21
10 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Reading vs Exeter City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Reading edged past Exeter City 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Reading as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Reading had 48% of the ball to Exeter City's 52%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 1.07 to 1.09.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Reading had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.67 goals for Reading and 0.67 for Exeter City.

What was the final score of Reading vs Exeter City?

Reading 3-2 Exeter City in the England - 1st Division on 01/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Reading vs Exeter City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Reading win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Reading 46%, draw 25%, Exeter City 28%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Reading) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Reading) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İN1 More England - 1st Division
1 Jan 2024
18:00 Portsmouth vs Stevenage Analysis →
18:00 Shrewsbury vs Fleetwood Town Analysis →
18:00 Barnsley vs Wigan Athletic Analysis →
18:00 Derby County vs Peterborough United Analysis →
18:00 Wycombe Wanderers vs Bristol Rovers Analysis →
18:00 Charlton Athletic vs Oxford United Analysis →