Utrecht II 0-1 AZ Alkmaar II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 22 Oct 2024

📅22/10/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
40%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.21
Over 2.5
47%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.5
No
53%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
4.54
2-3 Goals
39%
1.9
4-5 Goals
23%
2.9
6+ Goals
10%
8.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.54 — our 28% vs market 17.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.06
1/2
7%
28.5
1/X
8%
12.3
X/1
9%
5.3
X/2
15%
6.54
X/X
11%
5.27
2/1
7%
23.6
2/2
18%
4.11
2/X
6%
12.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
42%
-7.0pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.5pp
40%
Away Win
32%
+7.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
41%
+11.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
59%
-11.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
62%
-15.0pp
53%
BTTS No
38%
+15.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Utrecht II EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 36%
-17% / -36% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -1%
1.11/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.56
-44% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -12%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
331 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 79%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
13.8 Crosses 10.7
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Utrecht II
1W-0D-5L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.33 xG 1.60
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
299 Passes 379
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
12.02.2024 Utrecht II Utrecht II 1-2 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
14.08.2023 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 1-0 HT 1-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
17.04.2023 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 4-0 HT 2-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
09.01.2023 Utrecht II Utrecht II 0-2 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
18.03.2022 Utrecht II Utrecht II 0-1 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
10.09.2021 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 0-1 HT 0-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Utrecht II
0-1
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
0.35 xG 0.54
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
352 Passes 441
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
12 Box Touches 15
15 Crosses 4
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Utrecht II vs AZ Alkmaar II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar II edged past Utrecht II 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (35% / 25% / 40%) promised a tight game; AZ Alkmaar II found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Utrecht II had 46% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar II's 54%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 0.35 to 0.54.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar II led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Utrecht II and 1.67 for AZ Alkmaar II.

What was the final score of Utrecht II vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Utrecht II 0-1 AZ Alkmaar II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 22/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Utrecht II vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Before kick-off our model rated an AZ Alkmaar II win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Utrecht II 35%, draw 25%, AZ Alkmaar II 40%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AZ Alkmaar II), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar II) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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