Osnabrück 1-0 Ingolstadt — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 22 Nov 2025

📅22/11/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.9
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
33%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.15
Over 2.5
53%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.6
No
45%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.07
2-3 Goals
41%
1.86
4-5 Goals
25%
2.99
6+ Goals
10%
9.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.61
1/2
6%
33.5
1/X
7%
13.05
X/1
18%
4.85
X/2
10%
7.85
X/X
10%
5.45
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
22.25
2/2
16%
5.49
2/X
7%
13.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.25 — our 8% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
49%
-4.5pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.5pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+6.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
43%
+4.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
57%
-4.0pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.3pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Osnabrück EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Ingolstadt EU Bookmakers 30%
+0% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -4%
1.36/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.59
-19% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
345 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 72%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
19.2 Crosses 19.3
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Osnabrück
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Ingolstadt
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.89 xG 1.88
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
344 Passes 234
79% Pass Accuracy 72%
19 Box Touches 24
26 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
19.04.2025 Osnabrück Osnabrück 1-0 HT 1-0 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
24.11.2024 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 4-2 HT 2-0 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL3
12.02.2023 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 1-4 HT 1-3 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL3
10.08.2022 Osnabrück Osnabrück 0-1 HT 0-1 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3
30.05.2021 Osnabrück Osnabrück 3-1 HT 2-1 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL2P
27.05.2021 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 3-0 HT 2-0 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL2P
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Osnabrück
1-0
AWAY Ingolstadt
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 4
268 Passes 380
70% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Osnabrück vs Ingolstadt
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Osnabrück nicked a narrow win over Ingolstadt 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Osnabrück as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Osnabrück had 45% of the ball to Ingolstadt's 55%, shots finished 14-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Osnabrück and 1.67 for Ingolstadt.

What was the final score of Osnabrück vs Ingolstadt?

Osnabrück 1-0 Ingolstadt in the Germany - 3rd Division on 22/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Osnabrück vs Ingolstadt?

Before kick-off our model rated a Osnabrück win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Osnabrück 44%, draw 23%, Ingolstadt 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Osnabrück) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Osnabrück) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL3 More Germany - 3rd Division
22 Nov 2025
16:00 Viktoria Köln vs Verl Analysis →
16:00 Havelse vs Ulm 1846 Analysis →
16:00 Waldhof Mannheim vs Wehen Wiesbaden Analysis →
16:00 Alemannia Aachen vs Jahn Regensburg Analysis →
16:00 Hansa Rostock vs Schweinfurt Analysis →