Alpendorada 0-3 Casa Pia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 22 Nov 2025

Alpendorada
0-3 HT 0-1
Casa Pia
📅22/11/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Portugal - Cup – 2025/2026

Alpendorada vs Casa Pia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
3.87
Draw
19%
3.8
Away
42%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.1
Over 2.5
57%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.68
No
41%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.86
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
26%
2.99
6+ Goals
12%
9.51
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
12%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
26%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
23%
+15.9pp
19%
Draw
23%
-3.7pp
42%
Away Win
54%
-12.2pp
43%
Under 2.5
44%
-0.9pp
57%
Over 2.5
56%
+0.9pp
59%
BTTS Yes
56%
+3.0pp
41%
BTTS No
44%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Alpendorada v Casa Pia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alpendorada EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 58%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +25% / +25%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +67% / -28%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
301 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 80%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 3.0

Alpendorada 0-3 Casa Pia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alpendorada
0-3
AWAY Casa Pia
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Alpendorada vs Casa Pia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Casa Pia ran out comfortable winners over Alpendorada 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (38% / 19% / 42%) promised a tight game; Casa Pia found the edge the numbers couldn't. On goals, over 2.5 goals (57%) landed while both teams to score (59%) missed.

On the day, Alpendorada had 47% of the ball to Casa Pia's 53%, shots finished 8-9.

What was the final score of Alpendorada vs Casa Pia?

Alpendorada 0-3 Casa Pia in the Portugal - Cup on 22/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alpendorada vs Casa Pia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Casa Pia win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Alpendorada 38%, draw 19%, Casa Pia 42%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Casa Pia), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Casa Pia) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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