Leganes 2-5 Villarreal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 22 Dec 2024

📅22/12/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.5
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
43%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.78
Over 2.5
39%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.82
No
59%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.98
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
3.68
6+ Goals
7%
15.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.98 — our 34% vs market 26.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
6.29
1/2
11%
26.0
1/X
7%
14.55
X/1
12%
8.09
X/2
17%
4.29
X/X
15%
4.55
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
15%
2.58
2/X
5%
13.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
25%
+4.4pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.5pp
43%
Away Win
49%
-5.9pp
61%
Under 2.5
52%
+8.4pp
39%
Over 2.5
48%
-8.4pp
41%
BTTS Yes
51%
-9.6pp
59%
BTTS No
49%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leganes EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Villarreal EU Bookmakers 53%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +17%
0.99/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.88/1.11
-24% / +62% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +26%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
290 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 442 · 85%
14.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.5
17.2 Crosses 13.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leganes
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Villarreal
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.04 xG 1.27
39% Ball Possession 61%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
246 Passes 441
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 24
21 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.03.2020 Villarreal Villarreal 1-2 HT 1-0 Leganes Leganes İS1
14.09.2019 Leganes Leganes 0-3 HT 0-2 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
21.04.2019 Villarreal Villarreal 2-1 HT 0-0 Leganes Leganes İS1
16.09.2018 Leganes Leganes 0-1 HT 0-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
17.04.2018 Villarreal Villarreal 2-1 HT 1-0 Leganes Leganes İS1
10.01.2018 Villarreal Villarreal 2-1 HT 0-1 Leganes Leganes İSPK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leganes
2-5
AWAY Villarreal
1.25 xG 3.29
36% Ball Possession 64%
5 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 9
1 Corners 5
218 Passes 452
75% Pass Accuracy 88%
11 Box Touches 31
5 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Leganes vs Villarreal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Villarreal swept aside Leganes 5-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Villarreal as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Leganes had 36% of the ball to Villarreal's 64%, shots finished 5-18, expected goals 1.25 to 3.29.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Villarreal led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Leganes and 1.83 for Villarreal.

What was the final score of Leganes vs Villarreal?

Leganes 2-5 Villarreal in the Spain - Primera Liga on 22/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leganes vs Villarreal?

Before kick-off our model rated an Villarreal win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Leganes 29%, draw 28%, Villarreal 43%. The final score 2-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Villarreal) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Villarreal) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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