Real Madrid 4-2 Sevilla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 22 Dec 2024

Real Madrid
4-2 HT 3-1
Sevilla
📅22/12/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Real Madrid vs Sevilla Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.29
Draw
20%
5.15
Away
17%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.74
Over 2.5
60%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.76
No
45%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
6.03
2-3 Goals
40%
2.06
4-5 Goals
28%
2.48
6+ Goals
13%
5.29
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.47
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
23.4
X/1
24%
3.63
X/2
6%
21.1
X/X
8%
9.24
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
20.9
2/2
6%
14.9
2/X
7%
22.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.9 — our 11% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
73%
-10.0pp
20%
Draw
16%
+3.8pp
17%
Away Win
11%
+6.3pp
40%
Under 2.5
33%
+6.8pp
60%
Over 2.5
67%
-6.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.9pp
45%
BTTS No
47%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Real Madrid v Sevilla — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Sevilla EU Bookmakers 14%
+1% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -8%
2.20/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.71
+22% / +43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -14%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
471 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 79%
38.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
18.1 Crosses 16.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.6

Real Madrid vs Sevilla Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Madrid
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Sevilla
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.47 xG 0.96
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
561 Passes 378
90% Pass Accuracy 86%
26 Box Touches 14
12 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
25.02.2024 Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-0 HT 0-0 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
21.10.2023 Sevilla Sevilla 1-1 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
27.05.2023 Sevilla Sevilla 1-2 HT 1-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
22.10.2022 Real Madrid Real Madrid 3-1 HT 1-0 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
17.04.2022 Sevilla Sevilla 2-3 HT 2-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
28.11.2021 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-1 HT 1-1 Sevilla Sevilla İS1

Real Madrid 4-2 Sevilla — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Madrid
4-2
AWAY Sevilla
2.00 xG 1.32
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
572 Passes 373
90% Pass Accuracy 88%
30 Box Touches 13
10 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Real Madrid vs Sevilla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid got the better of Sevilla 4-2. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Real Madrid as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Real Madrid had 59% of the ball to Sevilla's 41%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 2.00 to 1.32.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Real Madrid and 1.00 for Sevilla.

What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Sevilla?

Real Madrid 4-2 Sevilla in the Spain - Primera Liga on 22/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Madrid vs Sevilla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Real Madrid 63%, draw 20%, Sevilla 17%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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