Atalanta 3-2 Empoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 22 Dec 2024

📅22/12/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.3
Draw
19%
4.95
Away
18%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.29
Over 2.5
61%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.96
No
51%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.49
2-3 Goals
39%
1.87
4-5 Goals
27%
2.78
6+ Goals
14%
7.73
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.53
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
23.0
X/1
13%
3.48
X/2
5%
19.55
X/X
6%
7.79
2/1 EV+ ✗
19%
23.0
2/2
8%
15.4
2/X
5%
23.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.0 — our 19% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
72%
-9.4pp
20%
Draw
17%
+2.5pp
18%
Away Win
11%
+6.9pp
39%
Under 2.5
40%
-0.6pp
61%
Over 2.5
60%
+0.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.4pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atalanta EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Empoli EU Bookmakers 14%
-8% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +10%
2.05/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.79
+23% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +18%
62% Ball Possession 38%
19 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
483 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 75%
34.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
20.4 Crosses 14.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atalanta
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Empoli
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.96 xG 0.56
58% Ball Possession 42%
24 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
432 Passes 286
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
47 Box Touches 16
26 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
28.04.2024 Atalanta Atalanta 2-0 HT 1-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
30.10.2023 Empoli Empoli 0-3 HT 0-2 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
17.03.2023 Atalanta Atalanta 2-1 HT 0-1 Empoli Empoli İTA
30.10.2022 Empoli Empoli 0-2 HT 0-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
21.05.2022 Atalanta Atalanta 0-1 HT 0-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
17.10.2021 Empoli Empoli 1-4 HT 1-2 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atalanta
3-2
AWAY Empoli
1.35 xG 1.28
65% Ball Possession 35%
16 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
504 Passes 240
88% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 13
30 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Atalanta vs Empoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atalanta squeezed past Empoli 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Atalanta as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Atalanta had 65% of the ball to Empoli's 35%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 1.35 to 1.28.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atalanta had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Atalanta and 0.50 for Empoli.

What was the final score of Atalanta vs Empoli?

Atalanta 3-2 Empoli in the Italy - Serie A on 22/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atalanta vs Empoli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Atalanta 63%, draw 20%, Empoli 18%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atalanta), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atalanta) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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