Auxerre 0-1 Dunkerque — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Cup, 22 Dec 2024

Auxerre
0-1 HT 0-1
Dunkerque
📅22/12/2024 · 🕒16:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✓
France - Cup – 2024/2025

Auxerre vs Dunkerque Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
31%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.03
Over 2.5
50%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.7
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.11
6+ Goals
10%
10.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.7 — our 27% vs market 21.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.12
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.55
X/1
20%
3.95
X/2
13%
9.98
X/X
11%
5.67
2/1
8%
22.1
2/2
11%
7.56
2/X
6%
16.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
57%
-13.9pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.7pp
31%
Away Win
20%
+11.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.6pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Auxerre v Dunkerque — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Auxerre EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Dunkerque EU Bookmakers 23%
-59% / -59% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
1.67/2.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.17/1.83
-5% / -74% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +107% / -15%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
409 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 77%
39.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
39.0 Crosses –
2.0 Yellow Cards –

Auxerre vs Dunkerque Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Auxerre
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Dunkerque
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.91 xG 0.76
62% Ball Possession 38%
19 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
441 Passes 245
83% Pass Accuracy 72%
29 Box Touches 14
28 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.04.2024 Dunkerque Dunkerque 1-3 HT 1-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
28.10.2023 Auxerre Auxerre 0-1 HT 0-0 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR2
08.01.2023 Dunkerque Dunkerque 2-2 HT 1-2 Auxerre Auxerre FRK
30.04.2022 Auxerre Auxerre 1-0 HT 0-0 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR2
11.12.2021 Dunkerque Dunkerque 0-2 HT 0-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
24.04.2021 Auxerre Auxerre 2-1 HT 1-1 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR2

Auxerre 0-1 Dunkerque — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Auxerre
0-1
AWAY Dunkerque
0.29 xG 1.97
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 7
395 Passes 358
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 18
28 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Auxerre vs Dunkerque
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dunkerque nicked a narrow win over Auxerre 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Auxerre at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Auxerre had 53% of the ball to Dunkerque's 47%, shots finished 9-13, expected goals 0.29 to 1.97 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Dunkerque's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Auxerre had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Auxerre and 0.83 for Dunkerque.

What was the final score of Auxerre vs Dunkerque?

Auxerre 0-1 Dunkerque in the France - Cup on 22/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Auxerre vs Dunkerque?

Before kick-off our model rated a Auxerre win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Auxerre 43%, draw 26%, Dunkerque 31%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Auxerre)
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