Guingamp 2-1 Caen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Cup, 22 Dec 2024

📅22/12/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.66
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
28%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.18
Over 2.5
47%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.63
No
57%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.28
2-3 Goals
41%
1.85
4-5 Goals
22%
2.85
6+ Goals
9%
8.33
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.28 — our 28% vs market 17.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.15
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.85
X/1
14%
4.27
X/2
6%
10.05
X/X
16%
5.65
2/1
8%
21.7
2/2
16%
7.14
2/X
5%
14.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
56%
-10.5pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.0pp
28%
Away Win
20%
+7.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
42%
+10.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
58%
-10.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
57%
-13.7pp
57%
BTTS No
43%
+13.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guingamp EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Caen EU Bookmakers 24%
+21% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.12/0.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.81
-36% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / -14%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
411 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.0
Crosses 12.0
0.0 Yellow Cards 0.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guingamp
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Caen
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.99 xG 0.88
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
320 Passes 363
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.09.2024 Guingamp Guingamp 3-1 HT 1-0 Caen Caen FR2
03.08.2024 Caen Caen 1-6 HT 0-4 Guingamp Guingamp HAZ
17.02.2024 Guingamp Guingamp 1-0 HT 1-0 Caen Caen FR2
30.09.2023 Caen Caen 0-1 HT 0-0 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
25.02.2023 Guingamp Guingamp 1-2 HT 0-2 Caen Caen FR2
20.08.2022 Caen Caen 4-1 HT 2-1 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guingamp
2-1
AWAY Caen
0.66 xG 1.18
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 5
415 Passes 436
86% Pass Accuracy 85%
9 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Guingamp vs Caen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guingamp squeezed past Caen 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Guingamp as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Guingamp had 48% of the ball to Caen's 52%, shots finished 7-11, expected goals 0.66 to 1.18 — the balance of chances actually favoured Caen.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guingamp had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Guingamp and 1.33 for Caen.

What was the final score of Guingamp vs Caen?

Guingamp 2-1 Caen in the France - Cup on 22/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guingamp vs Caen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guingamp win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Guingamp 45%, draw 27%, Caen 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guingamp) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Guingamp) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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