MVV Maastricht 5-1 Telstar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 22 Dec 2024

📅22/12/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
33%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.18
Over 2.5
56%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.53
No
46%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.11
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
25%
2.82
6+ Goals
11%
8.34
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
4.16
1/2
7%
24.3
1/X
12%
12.6
X/1
11%
6.54
X/2
13%
5.36
X/X
10%
5.21
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
28.5
2/2
13%
3.14
2/X
5%
12.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.5 — our 10% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
34%
+6.7pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.3pp
33%
Away Win
41%
-8.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
42%
+1.7pp
56%
Over 2.5
58%
-1.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
61%
-7.1pp
46%
BTTS No
39%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Telstar EU Bookmakers 45%
+1% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -27%
1.23/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.22
+6% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -42% / +6%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
312 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 407 · 81%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
17.6 Crosses 22.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MVV Maastricht
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Telstar
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.84 xG 1.77
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 20
6 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 7
331 Passes 318
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 32
13 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.09.2024 Telstar Telstar 4-0 HT 1-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
02.02.2024 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 6-1 HT 3-0 Telstar Telstar HOL2
14.10.2023 Telstar Telstar 2-1 HT 1-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
12.05.2023 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 2-1 HT 2-0 Telstar Telstar HOL2
24.01.2023 Telstar Telstar 5-3 HT 3-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
14.01.2022 Telstar Telstar 2-1 HT 2-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MVV Maastricht
5-1
AWAY Telstar
2.56 xG 0.58
38% Ball Possession 62%
15 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 1
236 Passes 439
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 12
11 Crosses 16
POST-MATCH MVV Maastricht vs Telstar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MVV Maastricht ran out comfortable winners over Telstar 5-1. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 27% / 33% — and on the day MVV Maastricht made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, MVV Maastricht had 38% of the ball to Telstar's 62%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 2.56 to 0.58.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Telstar led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for MVV Maastricht and 2.50 for Telstar.

What was the final score of MVV Maastricht vs Telstar?

MVV Maastricht 5-1 Telstar in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 22/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MVV Maastricht vs Telstar?

Before kick-off our model rated a MVV Maastricht win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split MVV Maastricht 40%, draw 27%, Telstar 33%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (MVV Maastricht), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (MVV Maastricht) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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