Volendam 2-1 De Graafschap — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 22 Dec 2024

📅22/12/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.86
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.74
Over 2.5
58%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.41
No
45%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
6.08
2-3 Goals
39%
2.05
4-5 Goals
26%
2.41
6+ Goals
15%
5.01
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.4
1/2
5%
31.5
1/X
5%
13.05
X/1
11%
4.89
X/2
9%
8.41
X/X
8%
6.48
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
20.05
2/2
15%
5.04
2/X
9%
13.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.05 — our 10% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
50%
-1.7pp
22%
Draw
23%
-0.8pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+2.5pp
42%
Under 2.5
33%
+9.0pp
58%
Over 2.5
67%
-9.0pp
55%
BTTS Yes
67%
-12.2pp
45%
BTTS No
33%
+12.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Volendam EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 30%
+2% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +3%
1.86/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.44
+22% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -18%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
339 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 75%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.8
20.5 Crosses 20.1
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Volendam
4W-0D-2L
AWAY De Graafschap
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.89 xG 1.43
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
316 Passes 333
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 25
13 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
11.08.2024 De Graafschap De Graafschap 4-3 HT 2-1 Volendam Volendam HOL2
08.04.2022 Volendam Volendam 3-1 HT 1-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
10.09.2021 De Graafschap De Graafschap 0-3 HT 0-2 Volendam Volendam HOL2
24.01.2021 Volendam Volendam 1-4 HT 0-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
07.11.2020 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-5 HT 2-2 Volendam Volendam HOL2
09.08.2020 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-2 HT 1-0 Volendam Volendam HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Volendam
2-1
AWAY De Graafschap
0.74 xG 0.53
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 3
377 Passes 311
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
30 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Volendam vs De Graafschap
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Volendam nicked a narrow win over De Graafschap 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Volendam as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Volendam had 54% of the ball to De Graafschap's 46%, shots finished 12-7, expected goals 0.74 to 0.53.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Volendam had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Volendam and 2.00 for De Graafschap.

What was the final score of Volendam vs De Graafschap?

Volendam 2-1 De Graafschap in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 22/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Volendam vs De Graafschap?

Before kick-off our model rated a Volendam win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Volendam 48%, draw 22%, De Graafschap 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Volendam), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Volendam) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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