Dover Athletic 1-2 Tonbridge Angels — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 23 Jan 2024

Dover Athletic
1-2 HT 1-1
Tonbridge Angels
📅23/01/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - Conference – 2023/2024

Dover Athletic vs Tonbridge Angels Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.32
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
42%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.75
Over 2.5
52%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.83
2-3 Goals
37%
1.72
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.81
6+ Goals
10%
17.3
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.81 — our 26% vs market 19.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
20%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
27%
+5.0pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.2pp
42%
Away Win
47%
-4.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
53%
-5.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
47%
+5.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.6pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Dover Athletic v Tonbridge Angels — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dover Athletic EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Tonbridge Angels EU Bookmakers 50%
-7% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -15%
0.93/1.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.50
-26% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -16%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
306 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.0

Dover Athletic vs Tonbridge Angels Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dover Athletic
1W-0D-3L
AWAY Tonbridge Angels
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.08.2023 Tonbridge Angels Tonbridge Angels 1-0 HT 1-0 Dover Athletic Dover Athletic İCON
24.01.2023 Tonbridge Angels Tonbridge Angels 4-0 HT 2-0 Dover Athletic Dover Athletic İCON
16.08.2022 Dover Athletic Dover Athletic 1-2 HT 1-1 Tonbridge Angels Tonbridge Angels İCON
10.04.2014 Tonbridge Angels Tonbridge Angels 0-2 HT 0-0 Dover Athletic Dover Athletic İCON
POST-MATCH Dover Athletic vs Tonbridge Angels
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tonbridge Angels squeezed past Dover Athletic 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Tonbridge Angels as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Tonbridge Angels led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Dover Athletic and 1.75 for Tonbridge Angels.

What was the final score of Dover Athletic vs Tonbridge Angels?

Dover Athletic 1-2 Tonbridge Angels in the England - Conference on 23/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dover Athletic vs Tonbridge Angels?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tonbridge Angels win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Dover Athletic 32%, draw 26%, Tonbridge Angels 42%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tonbridge Angels), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tonbridge Angels) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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