Hemel Hempstead Town 2-1 Farnborough — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 23 Jan 2024

📅23/01/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.53
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
38%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.97
Over 2.5
56%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.63
No
45%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.53
2-3 Goals
36%
1.76
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
29%
3.17
6+ Goals
11%
11.2
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.17 — our 29% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
15%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
36%
+3.3pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.0pp
38%
Away Win
38%
-0.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
47%
-2.8pp
56%
Over 2.5
53%
+2.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
57%
-1.9pp
45%
BTTS No
43%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hemel Hempstead Town EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Farnborough EU Bookmakers 42%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -30%
1.18/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.61
-13% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -19%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
369 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hemel Hempstead Town
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Farnborough
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.08.2023 Farnborough Farnborough 2-1 HT 1-1 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town İCON
31.01.2023 Farnborough Farnborough 1-2 HT 0-2 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town İCON
06.08.2022 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town 1-0 HT 1-0 Farnborough Farnborough İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hemel Hempstead Town
2-1
AWAY Farnborough
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Hemel Hempstead Town vs Farnborough
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hemel Hempstead Town squeezed past Farnborough 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (39% / 23% / 38%) promised a tight game; Hemel Hempstead Town found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Hemel Hempstead Town had 49% of the ball to Farnborough's 51%, shots finished 8-16.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Hemel Hempstead Town had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Hemel Hempstead Town and 1.00 for Farnborough.

What was the final score of Hemel Hempstead Town vs Farnborough?

Hemel Hempstead Town 2-1 Farnborough in the England - Conference on 23/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hemel Hempstead Town vs Farnborough?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hemel Hempstead Town win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Hemel Hempstead Town 39%, draw 23%, Farnborough 38%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hemel Hempstead Town), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hemel Hempstead Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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