Velbert 3-2 Rot Weiss Ahlen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 23 Feb 2024

📅23/02/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
42%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.18
Over 2.5
52%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.53
No
50%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
24%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
34%
-4.0pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.6pp
42%
Away Win
41%
+1.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
42%
+6.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
58%
-6.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
61%
-10.9pp
50%
BTTS No
39%
+10.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Velbert EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Rot Weiss Ahlen EU Bookmakers 45%
-27% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
0.49/3.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/2.69
-68% / -55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -48%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
322 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Velbert
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Rot Weiss Ahlen
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 4
02.09.2023 Rot Weiss Ahlen Rot Weiss Ahlen 3-2 HT 1-1 Velbert Velbert ALMBÖL
18.10.2015 Rot Weiss Ahlen Rot Weiss Ahlen 1-2 HT 1-2 Velbert Velbert ALMBÖL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Velbert
3-2
AWAY Rot Weiss Ahlen
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
POST-MATCH Velbert vs Rot Weiss Ahlen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Velbert squeezed past Rot Weiss Ahlen 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Rot Weiss Ahlen at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Velbert had 49% of the ball to Rot Weiss Ahlen's 51%, shots finished 13-15.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Velbert and 2.00 for Rot Weiss Ahlen.

What was the final score of Velbert vs Rot Weiss Ahlen?

Velbert 3-2 Rot Weiss Ahlen in the Germany - Regional League on 23/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Velbert vs Rot Weiss Ahlen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rot Weiss Ahlen win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Velbert 30%, draw 28%, Rot Weiss Ahlen 42%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Rot Weiss Ahlen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rot Weiss Ahlen) ✓ Over 2.5
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