Renofa Yamaguchi 2-2 V-Varen Nagasaki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 23 Feb 2025

📅23/02/2025 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.94
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
33%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.86
Over 2.5
43%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.7
No
54%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.16
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
3.36
6+ Goals
9%
12.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 33% vs market 24.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
30%
+6.8pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.2pp
32%
Away Win
42%
-10.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
50%
+7.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
50%
-7.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
55%
-8.5pp
54%
BTTS No
45%
+8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Renofa Yamaguchi EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 46%
-7% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +12%
1.10/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.74/1.18
-1% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -10%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
273 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 393 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
18.7 Crosses 13.4
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Renofa Yamaguchi
3W-1D-2L
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
265 Passes 411
78% Pass Accuracy 88%
11 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
24.08.2024 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 1-2 HT 1-0 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi JAP2
17.03.2024 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi 0-1 HT 0-1 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
09.07.2023 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 0-1 HT 0-1 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi JAP2
03.06.2023 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi 1-1 HT 1-1 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
15.10.2022 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 0-1 HT 0-1 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi JAP2
22.05.2022 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi 1-2 HT 0-2 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Renofa Yamaguchi
2-2
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki
32% Ball Possession 68%
8 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 7
235 Passes 596
75% Pass Accuracy 88%
10 Crosses 29
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Renofa Yamaguchi vs V-Varen Nagasaki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Renofa Yamaguchi and V-Varen Nagasaki couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (37% / 30% / 32%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Renofa Yamaguchi had 32% of the ball to V-Varen Nagasaki's 68%, shots finished 8-17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Renofa Yamaguchi had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Renofa Yamaguchi and 0.83 for V-Varen Nagasaki.

What was the final score of Renofa Yamaguchi vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Renofa Yamaguchi 2-2 V-Varen Nagasaki in the Japan - J2 League on 23/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Renofa Yamaguchi vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Before kick-off our model rated a Renofa Yamaguchi win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Renofa Yamaguchi 37%, draw 30%, V-Varen Nagasaki 32%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Renofa Yamaguchi) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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