Celaya 3-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 23 Feb 2025

📅23/02/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.72
Draw
32%
3.64
Away
20%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
2.0
Over 2.5
42%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
12%
X/1
16%
X/2
6%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
54%
-7.0pp
32%
Draw
24%
+7.9pp
20%
Away Win
21%
-0.9pp
58%
Under 2.5
46%
+12.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
54%
-12.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.7pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celaya EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos EU Bookmakers 24%
+1% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -12%
1.66/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.71
-6% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -8%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
388 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celaya
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
07.09.2024 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-1 HT 1-1 Celaya Celaya MEK2
01.03.2024 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-2 HT 0-1 Celaya Celaya MEK2
20.08.2023 Celaya Celaya 1-1 HT 1-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
10.03.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-2 HT 0-1 Celaya Celaya MEK2
10.08.2022 Celaya Celaya 1-0 HT 0-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
07.01.2022 Celaya Celaya 1-1 HT 0-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
POST-MATCH Celaya vs Tepatitlán de Morelos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celaya saw off Tepatitlán de Morelos 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Celaya as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Celaya had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Celaya and 0.83 for Tepatitlán de Morelos.

What was the final score of Celaya vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Celaya 3-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos in the Mexico - Primera A on 23/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celaya vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Celaya win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Celaya 47%, draw 32%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Celaya), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Celaya) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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