Celaya vs Tepatitlán de Morelos Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Celaya v Tepatitlán de Morelos — Team-Based Signals
Celaya vs Tepatitlán de Morelos Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-1
Tepatitlán de Morelos
MEK2
1-2
HT 0-1
Celaya
MEK2
1-0
HT 0-0
Tepatitlán de Morelos
MEK2
1-1
HT 0-1
Tepatitlán de Morelos
MEK2
Celaya saw off Tepatitlán de Morelos 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Celaya as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Celaya had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Celaya and 0.83 for Tepatitlán de Morelos.
What was the final score of Celaya vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
Celaya 3-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos in the Mexico - Primera A on 23/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Celaya vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?
Before kick-off our model rated a Celaya win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Celaya 47%, draw 32%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Celaya), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.