FC Juarez 0-4 Toluca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 23 Feb 2025

📅23/02/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.29
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
47%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.18
Over 2.5
51%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.56
No
46%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.14
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
2.8
6+ Goals
10%
8.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
10%
X/2
16%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
23%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
27%
+0.5pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.1pp
47%
Away Win
48%
-1.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
42%
+7.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
58%
-7.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.1pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Juarez EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Toluca EU Bookmakers 52%
-1% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -12%
1.04/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.01
-6% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -28%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
302 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 78%
15.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.3
16.1 Crosses 14.7
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Juarez
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Toluca
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.02 xG 1.36
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
327 Passes 397
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
09.03.2024 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-1 HT 1-1 Toluca Toluca MEK
16.07.2023 Toluca Toluca 2-4 HT 1-1 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
23.04.2023 Toluca Toluca 1-1 HT 1-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
09.10.2022 Toluca Toluca 3-0 HT 1-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
30.07.2022 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-1 HT 0-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
20.04.2022 Toluca Toluca 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Juarez
0-4
AWAY Toluca
0.22 xG 3.18
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 2
364 Passes 422
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
12 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 6
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FC Juarez vs Toluca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toluca cruised past FC Juarez 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-3.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, FC Juarez had 47% of the ball to Toluca's 53%, shots finished 9-12, expected goals 0.22 to 3.18.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Juarez had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for FC Juarez and 1.33 for Toluca.

What was the final score of FC Juarez vs Toluca?

FC Juarez 0-4 Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 23/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Juarez vs Toluca?

Before kick-off our model rated an Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split FC Juarez 27%, draw 26%, Toluca 47%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Toluca) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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