Guadalajara 2-1 Pachuca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 23 Feb 2025

📅23/02/2025 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.12
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.9
Over 2.5
47%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.17
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
23%
3.35
6+ Goals
9%
12.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.17 — our 28% vs market 24.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
43%
-2.3pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.1pp
30%
Away Win
30%
+0.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
49%
+4.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
51%
-4.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.5pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Pachuca EU Bookmakers 33%
-4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +9%
1.31/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.40
-14% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +5%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
289 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 80%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
19.0 Crosses 16.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guadalajara
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Pachuca
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.84 xG 0.93
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
316 Passes 286
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
13 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
20.10.2024 Pachuca Pachuca 0-2 HT 0-2 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
14.04.2024 Pachuca Pachuca 0-1 HT 0-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
24.09.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 0-0 HT 0-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
12.02.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 1-1 HT 0-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
31.07.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 0-0 HT 0-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
17.01.2022 Pachuca Pachuca 2-1 HT 2-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guadalajara
2-1
AWAY Pachuca
0.84 xG 0.78
38% Ball Possession 62%
7 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 11
221 Passes 423
69% Pass Accuracy 83%
8 Box Touches 28
6 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Guadalajara vs Pachuca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guadalajara edged past Pachuca 2-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Guadalajara as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Guadalajara had 38% of the ball to Pachuca's 62%, shots finished 7-19, expected goals 0.84 to 0.78.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Guadalajara and 0.50 for Pachuca.

What was the final score of Guadalajara vs Pachuca?

Guadalajara 2-1 Pachuca in the Mexico - Primera on 23/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guadalajara vs Pachuca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Guadalajara 41%, draw 29%, Pachuca 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guadalajara) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Guadalajara) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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