Cracovia Krakow 2-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 23 Feb 2025

Cracovia Krakow
2-2 HT 0-2
Jagiellonia Bialystok
📅23/02/2025 · 🕒16:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✓
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.12
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
30%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.95
Over 2.5
53%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.66
No
46%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.4
2-3 Goals
42%
1.75
4-5 Goals
25%
3.17
6+ Goals
10%
11.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.1
1/2
7%
30.0
1/X
10%
12.95
X/1
19%
5.11
X/2
11%
6.48
X/X
10%
4.93
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
24.7
2/2
13%
4.47
2/X
6%
13.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.7 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
43%
+0.5pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.2pp
30%
Away Win
31%
-0.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.0pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cracovia Krakow v Jagiellonia Bialystok — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cracovia Krakow EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 34%
-2% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +24%
1.38/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.40
+16% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -5%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
295 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 77%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
25.8 Crosses 15.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.0

Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cracovia Krakow
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.66 xG 1.30
38% Ball Possession 61%
15 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
226 Passes 420
74% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
17.08.2024 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-4 HT 2-2 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL
14.04.2024 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-3 HT 1-2 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL
08.10.2023 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 2-4 HT 0-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
20.05.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-1 HT 1-0 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL
05.11.2022 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 1-0 HT 0-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
19.02.2022 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 0-0 HT 0-0 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL

Cracovia Krakow 2-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cracovia Krakow
2-2
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
0.48 xG 2.71
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 11
263 Passes 269
74% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 35
19 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia Bialystok
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia Bialystok shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Cracovia Krakow at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Cracovia Krakow had 49% of the ball to Jagiellonia Bialystok's 51%, shots finished 8-17, expected goals 0.48 to 2.71.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cracovia Krakow had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.33 for Jagiellonia Bialystok.

What was the final score of Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Cracovia Krakow 2-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 23/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cracovia Krakow win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Cracovia Krakow 44%, draw 26%, Jagiellonia Bialystok 30%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Cracovia Krakow) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cracovia Krakow) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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