Lech Poznan 3-1 Zaglebie Lubin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 23 Feb 2025

📅23/02/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.49
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
23%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.21
Over 2.5
53%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.17
2-3 Goals
37%
1.83
4-5 Goals
26%
2.79
6+ Goals
12%
8.02
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.83
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
15.6
X/1
18%
4.07
X/2
8%
12.0
X/X
10%
6.39
2/1
8%
20.45
2/2
9%
9.41
2/X
8%
17.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
63%
-12.0pp
27%
Draw
21%
+5.5pp
23%
Away Win
16%
+6.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.1pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin EU Bookmakers 20%
-2% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -11%
1.91/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.77
+8% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / +4%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
392 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 74%
29.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
22.9 Crosses 16.4
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lech Poznan
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.86 xG 1.27
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
407 Passes 282
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
24 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.08.2024 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 0-1 HT 0-1 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
10.02.2024 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 2-0 HT 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
06.08.2023 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 1-1 HT 1-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
19.02.2023 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 1-2 HT 1-2 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
07.08.2022 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 1-1 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
21.05.2022 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 2-1 HT 2-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lech Poznan
3-1
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin
0.59 xG 1.05
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 24
5 Shots on Target 10
4 Corners 13
347 Passes 215
78% Pass Accuracy 70%
15 Box Touches 27
9 Crosses 33
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lech Poznan got the better of Zaglebie Lubin 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lech Poznan as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Lech Poznan had 57% of the ball to Zaglebie Lubin's 43%, shots finished 13-24, expected goals 0.59 to 1.05 — on chances, Zaglebie Lubin could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lech Poznan had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Lech Poznan and 0.83 for Zaglebie Lubin.

What was the final score of Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin?

Lech Poznan 3-1 Zaglebie Lubin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 23/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lech Poznan win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Lech Poznan 51%, draw 27%, Zaglebie Lubin 23%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lech Poznan), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lech Poznan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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