Danubio 1-1 Progreso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 23 Feb 2025

📅23/02/2025 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.82
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
25%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.59
Over 2.5
41%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.09
No
58%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
51%
-5.5pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.1pp
25%
Away Win
22%
+3.4pp
59%
Under 2.5
59%
+0.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
41%
-0.4pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.3pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Danubio EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Progreso EU Bookmakers 25%
-1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -14%
1.31/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.93
-7% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -31%
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
260 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Danubio
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Progreso
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 3
12.10.2024 Progreso Progreso 0-0 HT 0-0 Danubio Danubio URU
06.04.2024 Danubio Danubio 1-1 HT 1-0 Progreso Progreso URU
31.08.2022 Progreso Progreso 2-2 HT 2-0 Danubio Danubio URUK
15.02.2021 Danubio Danubio 0-1 HT 0-1 Progreso Progreso URU
22.08.2020 Progreso Progreso 1-0 HT 1-0 Danubio Danubio URU
19.10.2019 Progreso Progreso 2-1 HT 0-1 Danubio Danubio URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Danubio
1-1
AWAY Progreso
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Danubio vs Progreso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Danubio and Progreso shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Danubio at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

On the day, Danubio had 60% of the ball to Progreso's 40%, shots finished 15-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Progreso led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Danubio and 1.17 for Progreso.

What was the final score of Danubio vs Progreso?

Danubio 1-1 Progreso in the Uruguay - Premier League on 23/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Danubio vs Progreso?

Before kick-off our model rated a Danubio win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Danubio 46%, draw 29%, Progreso 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Danubio), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Danubio) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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