Rochdale 1-0 Maidenhead United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 23 Mar 2024

📅23/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.09
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.74
Over 2.5
46%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
2.9
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.02
6+ Goals
8%
18.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.9 — our 31% vs market 28.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.1
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.85
X/1
18%
4.62
X/2
11%
6.34
X/X
10%
4.37
2/1
6%
27.5
2/2
13%
4.8
2/X
12%
14.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-1.3pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.1pp
31%
Away Win
29%
+1.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.6pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rochdale EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Maidenhead United EU Bookmakers 33%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +3%
1.74/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.38
+12% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +4%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
313 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rochdale
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Maidenhead United
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
63% Ball Possession 37%
13 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
07.10.2023 Maidenhead United Maidenhead United 2-2 HT 0-1 Rochdale Rochdale İBSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rochdale
1-0
AWAY Maidenhead United
57% Ball Possession 43%
9 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Rochdale vs Maidenhead United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rochdale squeezed past Maidenhead United 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Rochdale as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Rochdale had 57% of the ball to Maidenhead United's 43%, shots finished 9-5.

What was the final score of Rochdale vs Maidenhead United?

Rochdale 1-0 Maidenhead United in the England - National League on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rochdale vs Maidenhead United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rochdale win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Rochdale 42%, draw 27%, Maidenhead United 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rochdale), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rochdale) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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