Cacereno 1-1 CD Badajoz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 23 Mar 2024

📅23/03/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
30%
2.83
Away
29%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
69%
1.44
Over
31%
2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.19
No
62%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1
39%
2-3
42%
4-5
13%
6+
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 69%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.6pp
30%
Draw
32%
-2.2pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+2.8pp
69%
Under 2.5
66%
+3.1pp
31%
Over 2.5
34%
-3.1pp
38%
BTTS Yes
42%
-3.4pp
62%
BTTS No
58%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cacereno The Market 46%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Badajoz The Market 29%
+13% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -18%
1.39/0.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/1.44
+18% / +145% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -19%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
414 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cacereno
0W-0D-2L
AWAY CD Badajoz
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
5 Yellow Cards 3
12.11.2023 CD Badajoz CD Badajoz 2-0 HT 2-0 Cacereno Cacereno İS4
31.07.2019 Cacereno Cacereno 0-2 HT 0-0 CD Badajoz CD Badajoz HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cacereno
1-1
AWAY CD Badajoz
63% Ball Possession 37%
9 Total Shots 4
2 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 9
POST-MATCH Cacereno vs CD Badajoz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cacereno and CD Badajoz couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Cacereno at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (69%) landed while no to both teams scoring (62%) missed.

On the day, Cacereno had 63% of the ball to CD Badajoz's 37%, shots finished 9-4.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, CD Badajoz led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Cacereno and 2.00 for CD Badajoz.

What was the final score of Cacereno vs CD Badajoz?

Cacereno 1-1 CD Badajoz in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cacereno vs CD Badajoz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cacereno win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Cacereno 42%, draw 30%, CD Badajoz 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Cacereno), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cacereno) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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