Lentigione 1-1 Calcio Certaldo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie D, 23 Mar 2024

📅23/03/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.84
Draw
25%
2.77
Away
41%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
66%
Over
34%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
No
61%
Total Goals
0-1
30%
2-3
47%
4-5
16%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
4%
2/2
24%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 66%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
34%
Home Win
32%
+2.5pp
25%
Draw
33%
-7.5pp
41%
Away Win
36%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lentigione The Market 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Calcio Certaldo The Market 39%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -56% / -56%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -51%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
293 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Lentigione vs Calcio Certaldo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lentigione and Calcio Certaldo shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Calcio Certaldo at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (66%) landed while no to both teams scoring (61%) missed.

What was the final score of Lentigione vs Calcio Certaldo?

Lentigione 1-1 Calcio Certaldo in the Italy - Serie D on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lentigione vs Calcio Certaldo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Calcio Certaldo win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Lentigione 34%, draw 25%, Calcio Certaldo 41%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Calcio Certaldo), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Calcio Certaldo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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