Montecchio Maggiore 1-0 San Paolo Padova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie D, 23 Mar 2024

📅23/03/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.42
Draw
24%
4.62
Away
32%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
Over Pick
52%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Total Goals
0-1
30%
2-3
31%
4-5
29%
6+
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
9%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
4%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
44%
Home Win
66%
-21.5pp
24%
Draw
18%
+5.1pp
32%
Away Win
16%
+16.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montecchio Maggiore The Market 70%
Head to Head
AWAY San Paolo Padova The Market 19%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-57% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 3
416 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Montecchio Maggiore vs San Paolo Padova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Montecchio Maggiore squeezed past San Paolo Padova 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Montecchio Maggiore as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

What was the final score of Montecchio Maggiore vs San Paolo Padova?

Montecchio Maggiore 1-0 San Paolo Padova in the Italy - Serie D on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montecchio Maggiore vs San Paolo Padova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Montecchio Maggiore win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Montecchio Maggiore 44%, draw 24%, San Paolo Padova 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Montecchio Maggiore) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Montecchio Maggiore) ✗ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTD More Italy - Serie D
23 Mar 2024
16:30 Real Monterotondo Scalo vs Tivoli Analysis →
16:30 Mestre vs Virtus Bolzano Analysis →
16:30 Real Forte Querceta vs Orvietana Calcio Analysis →
16:30 Atletico Ascoli vs Avezzano Analysis →
16:30 Lentigione vs Calcio Certaldo Analysis →
16:30 Pinerolo vs RG Ticino Analysis →