23/03/2024
·
16:30
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
1-2
Mestre vs Virtus Bolzano Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
Over
53%
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
59%
No
41%
Total Goals
0-1
24%
2-3
44%
4-5
25%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
13%
1/X
13%
X/1
12%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 59% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
32%
Home Win
26%
30%
Draw
22%
38%
Away Win
52%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Mestre v Virtus Bolzano — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Mestre
The Market 30%
Head to Head
AWAY
Virtus Bolzano
The Market 56%
+55% /
+55%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
-22%
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
48%
Ball Possession
52%
12
Total Shots
13
5
Shots on Target
5
4
Corners
5
316 · 78%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
332 · 78%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Mestre vs Virtus Bolzano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Mestre edged past Virtus Bolzano 1-0.
Our pre-match split (32% / 30% / 38%) promised a tight game; Mestre found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — both teams to score (59%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of Mestre vs Virtus Bolzano?
Mestre 1-0 Virtus Bolzano in the Italy - Serie D on 23/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Mestre vs Virtus Bolzano?
Before kick-off our model rated an Virtus Bolzano win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Mestre 32%, draw 30%, Virtus Bolzano 38%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.
✗ Match Result (Virtus Bolzano)
✗ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced?
Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself?
Open Match Studio →
İTD
More Italy - Serie D
23 Mar 2024