23/03/2025
·
14:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
0-1
2nd Score
0-2
Don Benito vs Almeria II Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
42%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
13%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
17%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 67% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
39%
31%
Draw
28%
36%
Away Win
33%
67%
Under 2.5
60%
33%
Over 2.5
40%
40%
BTTS Yes
46%
60%
BTTS No
54%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Don Benito v Almeria II — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Don Benito
EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY
Almeria II
EU Bookmakers 37%
-11% /
-13%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-1% /
-1%
0.71/0.93
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
0.49/0.51
-42%
/
+5%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-55%
/
+102%
52%
Ball Possession
48%
11
Total Shots
10
5
Shots on Target
4
5
Corners
4
274 · 76%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
312 · 78%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
2.4
Yellow Cards
2.5
Don Benito vs Almeria II Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Don Benito
0W-0D-1L
AWAY
Almeria II
1.00
Avg Goals (FT)
2.00
41%
Ball Possession
59%
15
Total Shots
7
7
Shots on Target
4
6
Corners
1
2
Yellow Cards
2
The Meetings
POST-MATCH
Don Benito vs Almeria II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Almeria II squeezed past Don Benito 2-1 away from home.
Our pre-match split (32% / 31% / 36%) promised a tight game; Almeria II found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of Don Benito vs Almeria II?
Don Benito 1-2 Almeria II in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 23/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Don Benito vs Almeria II?
Before kick-off our model rated an Almeria II win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Don Benito 32%, draw 31%, Almeria II 36%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Almeria II) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Almeria II)
✗ Under 2.5
✗ BTTS No
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İS4
More Spain - 2nd Division RFEF
23 Mar 2025