Gernika 1-0 CD Calahorra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 23 Mar 2025

📅23/03/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.25
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
36%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
Over 2.5
41%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.09
No
58%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
41%
-5.0pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.9pp
37%
Away Win
30%
+6.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.6pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gernika EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Calahorra EU Bookmakers 33%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +11%
1.56/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/0.97
+29% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +15%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
315 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gernika
2W-1D-0L
AWAY CD Calahorra
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
10.11.2024 CD Calahorra CD Calahorra 0-0 HT 0-0 Gernika Gernika İS4
10.03.2024 CD Calahorra CD Calahorra 0-1 HT 0-0 Gernika Gernika İS4
28.10.2023 Gernika Gernika 2-0 HT 1-0 CD Calahorra CD Calahorra İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gernika
1-0
AWAY CD Calahorra
54% Ball Possession 46%
5 Total Shots 6
1 Shots on Target 4
0 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Gernika vs CD Calahorra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gernika nicked a narrow win over CD Calahorra 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 28% / 37% — and on the day Gernika made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (58%) came in.

On the day, Gernika had 54% of the ball to CD Calahorra's 46%, shots finished 5-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Gernika had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Gernika and 0.00 for CD Calahorra.

What was the final score of Gernika vs CD Calahorra?

Gernika 1-0 CD Calahorra in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 23/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gernika vs CD Calahorra?

Before kick-off our model rated an CD Calahorra win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Gernika 36%, draw 28%, CD Calahorra 37%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (CD Calahorra) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (CD Calahorra) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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