Pineto 3-2 SPAL — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 23 Mar 2025

Pineto
3-2 HT 2-0
SPAL
📅23/03/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.33
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
32%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.6
Over 2.5
41%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.95
No
54%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.38
2-3 Goals
37%
1.72
4-5 Goals
18%
4.46
6+ Goals
10%
24.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
39%
-0.9pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.5pp
32%
Away Win
32%
-0.5pp
59%
Under 2.5
59%
+0.7pp
41%
Over 2.5
41%
-0.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.2pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pineto EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY SPAL EU Bookmakers 36%
-4% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -7%
1.02/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.31
-16% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -13%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
270 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 243 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pineto
0W-1D-1L
AWAY SPAL
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.11.2024 SPAL SPAL 2-1 HT 0-1 Pineto Pineto İTC
16.12.2023 Pineto Pineto 1-1 HT 0-0 SPAL SPAL İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pineto
3-2
AWAY SPAL
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 22
4 Shots on Target 6
0 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Pineto vs SPAL
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pineto squeezed past SPAL 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 30% / 32% — and on the day Pineto made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Pineto had 45% of the ball to SPAL's 55%, shots finished 8-22.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, SPAL led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Pineto and 1.50 for SPAL.

What was the final score of Pineto vs SPAL?

Pineto 3-2 SPAL in the Italy - Serie C on 23/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pineto vs SPAL?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pineto win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Pineto 38%, draw 30%, SPAL 32%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pineto) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pineto) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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