Novara 2-1 Padova Calcio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 23 Mar 2025

📅23/03/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
4.04
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
43%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.56
Over 2.5
40%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.13
No
55%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.27
2-3 Goals
42%
1.73
4-5 Goals
19%
4.72
6+ Goals
8%
28.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
8%
X/2
15%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
23%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
22%
+6.8pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.5pp
43%
Away Win
51%
-7.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
60%
-0.5pp
40%
Over 2.5
40%
+0.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
43%
+1.9pp
55%
BTTS No
57%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Novara EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Padova Calcio EU Bookmakers 55%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
0.89/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/0.77
-8% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +22%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
252 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 399 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Novara
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Padova Calcio
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
11.11.2024 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 2-1 HT 2-0 Novara Novara İTC
28.01.2024 Novara Novara 0-3 HT 0-2 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
20.09.2023 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 2-0 HT 2-0 Novara Novara İTC
26.02.2023 Novara Novara 1-3 HT 0-1 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
23.10.2022 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 1-2 HT 0-1 Novara Novara İTC
15.02.2014 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 1-0 HT 0-0 Novara Novara nan
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Novara
2-1
AWAY Padova Calcio
34% Ball Possession 66%
7 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Novara vs Padova Calcio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novara nicked a narrow win over Padova Calcio 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Padova Calcio at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Novara had 34% of the ball to Padova Calcio's 66%, shots finished 7-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Padova Calcio led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Novara and 2.00 for Padova Calcio.

What was the final score of Novara vs Padova Calcio?

Novara 2-1 Padova Calcio in the Italy - Serie C on 23/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Novara vs Padova Calcio?

Before kick-off our model rated an Padova Calcio win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Novara 28%, draw 29%, Padova Calcio 43%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Padova Calcio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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