Sagan Tosu 1-0 Kataller Toyama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 23 Mar 2025

📅23/03/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.27
Draw
34%
3.04
Away
32%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.64
Over 2.5
41%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.5
2-3 Goals
40%
1.71
4-5 Goals
19%
4.2
6+ Goals
8%
21.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
18%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
40%
-6.3pp
34%
Draw
29%
+4.6pp
32%
Away Win
31%
+1.7pp
59%
Under 2.5
57%
+1.8pp
41%
Over 2.5
43%
-1.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.9pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Kataller Toyama EU Bookmakers 34%
-54% / -54% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
0.50/2.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/0.15
-62% / -55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +150%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
367 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
25.0 Crosses 14.0
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sagan Tosu
1-0
AWAY Kataller Toyama
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 6
406 Passes 346
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
7 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sagan Tosu vs Kataller Toyama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sagan Tosu nicked a narrow win over Kataller Toyama 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 34% / 32% — and on the day Sagan Tosu made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Sagan Tosu had 53% of the ball to Kataller Toyama's 47%, shots finished 9-12.

What was the final score of Sagan Tosu vs Kataller Toyama?

Sagan Tosu 1-0 Kataller Toyama in the Japan - J2 League on 23/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sagan Tosu vs Kataller Toyama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sagan Tosu win the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split Sagan Tosu 34%, draw 34%, Kataller Toyama 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (34/34/32) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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