Mushuc Runa 2-0 Emelec — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 23 Mar 2026

📅23/03/2026 · 🕒02:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.71
Over 2.5
47%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-0.9pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.5pp
31%
Away Win
29%
+2.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
55%
-1.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
45%
+1.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.8pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mushuc Runa EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Emelec EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +7%
1.26/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.45
+16% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +7%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
291 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 77%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
21.2 Crosses 14.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mushuc Runa
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Emelec
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.06 xG 1.11
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
196 Passes 261
69% Pass Accuracy 76%
15 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
20.07.2025 Emelec Emelec 1-0 HT 1-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
30.03.2025 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 1-1 HT 0-0 Emelec Emelec EKV1
12.08.2024 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 3-0 HT 1-0 Emelec Emelec EKV1
09.03.2024 Emelec Emelec 0-0 HT 0-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
23.09.2023 Emelec Emelec 3-1 HT 1-1 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
24.04.2023 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 0-0 HT 0-0 Emelec Emelec EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mushuc Runa
2-0
AWAY Emelec
2.11 xG 0.65
45% Ball Possession 55%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 3
236 Passes 274
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Mushuc Runa vs Emelec
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mushuc Runa beat Emelec 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Mushuc Runa as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Mushuc Runa had 45% of the ball to Emelec's 55%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 2.11 to 0.65.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Emelec led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Mushuc Runa and 0.83 for Emelec.

What was the final score of Mushuc Runa vs Emelec?

Mushuc Runa 2-0 Emelec in the Ecuador - Premier on 23/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mushuc Runa vs Emelec?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mushuc Runa win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Mushuc Runa 41%, draw 27%, Emelec 31%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mushuc Runa), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mushuc Runa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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